Prediction of date of annual maximum concentration of main airborne allergenic pollen in Beijing

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 北京主要气传致敏花粉年浓度峰值日期预测 DOI: 10.5846/stxb202202220416 作者: 作者单位: 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 北京市科技计划课题（Z191100009119013） Prediction of date annual maximum concentration main airborne allergenic pollen in Beijing Author: Affiliation: Fund Project: Municipal Science and Technology Project(Z191100009119013) 摘要 | 图/表 访问统计 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献 资源附件 文章评论 摘要:花粉是我国北方引发过敏性鼻炎最主要过敏原，花粉症发病期与花粉浓度高峰期吻合。基于北京地区2012至2020年花粉季多站、逐日分类花粉浓度观测数据分析，得出北京地区花粉浓度在3月上旬至5月中旬（可进一步划分为3月中旬至4月上旬和4月下旬至5月上旬两个高峰期）和8月中旬至9月中旬分别存在两个高峰期，第一个高峰期内优势致敏花粉种类为柏科、杨柳科和松科，第二个高峰期内优势致敏花粉种类为桑科、菊科蒿属和藜科。根据优势致敏花粉年浓度峰值日期观测数据，使用与花粉采样站点位置相匹配的逐日气象观测数据累积值，基于作物模型概念和模糊逻辑原理建立了北京地区主要气传致敏花粉年浓度峰值日期预测模型。经检验，柏科、杨柳科、松科、桑科、菊科蒿属和藜科花粉模型预测准确率分别为87.8%、80.0%、64.4%、86.7%、78.8%和81.8%。基于北京地区主要气传致敏花粉年浓度峰值日期预测模型可为本地花粉症防治提供理论参考。 Abstract:The prevalence severity pollen-induced pollinosis has been increasing yearly worldwide recent years. Pollen is the allergen causing allergic rhinitis North China onset period coincides with peak concentration. As one mega-cities northern region China, becoming increasingly aware problems caused by pollen. Based on analysis 12 sampling stations daily classified observation data during season from 2012 to 2020, there were two periods early March mid-May (it could be further divided into mid-March April late May) mid-August mid-September, respectively. The dominant species first Cupressaceae, Salicaceae (from mid-April, average accounted for 39.1% 18.2% respectively) Pinaceae mid-April May, 18.2%), second Moraceae, Artemisia Chenopodiaceae 34.4%, 30.4% 12.7% respectively). varied significantly among seasons, fluctuated significantly. In contrast, variation dates same relatively stable, its prediction research work more meaningful control. cumulative value meteorological matched location stations, a model established based principle crop growth fuzzy logic. results showed that accuracy models Salicaceae, Pinaceae, 87.8%, 80.0%, 64.4%, 86.7%, 78.8% 81.8%, Using logic driven values elements date, combined high-resolution regional numerical weather Beijing, we can make reasonable time different pollens provide theoretical reference prevention control local pollinosis.